Codechef Rating Predictor
The delay in previous month rating changes + inspiration from CF Predictor and for the practice of a web-application, i tried to write a script that can predict rating changes from ongoing live contests @ Codechef.
While the actual delays in rating changes s/would be fixed, this script can help in predicting rating changes as new submissions are made, so hopefully it can be useful for Long contests :).
Website is currently hosted on Openshift free servers and has few restrictions on use. Therefore the server might be slow or not responding during the period rating changes are calculated. Currently, ratings are expected to be updated every 15 minutes
I also tested rating changes on few past contests and the predictions were accurate within an error of 2 for almost everyone except the first rank (I have no idea why first rank predictions are wrong in some contests using current formulas)
Please note that project is still in beta stage and also actual changes might differ more due to changes in ranklist after plagiarism detection
Your feedback/suggestions would be appreciated
Few stats on JUNE17 Predictions. I matched ratings (All) of first 6391 users and the results were as follows:
Difference - No of users
- 0 - 5868
- 1 - 275
- 2 - 125
- 3 - 68
= 4 - 55
There were around 40 users having difference > 50. Turns out some usernames appears to be missing in the ranklist when sorted by rank and hence they were showing as last in the prediction list.
I ran the code again after fixing the above bug and results are better now (Maximum difference is 8)
- 0 - 5900
- 1 - 485
= 2 - 6
The ratings are expected to update every 5 minute
Few stats, 4811/4820 predictions (for both all and cook-off predictions) were right. Rest have diff < 3 with the exception of rating prediction of first rank in cook off. Also, as @vikasj554 pointed out, few users got rating changed after initial update. (I still need to figure out why this happened). But even after this 4794/4820 predictions were accurate.
The ratings are again expected to update every 5 minute
Update frequency: 10 mins